Executives are bullish on AI—but unclear on the path to revenue, IBM study finds 8 in 10 leaders expect AI to drive substantial revenue by 2030, yet most lack clarity on where it will come from or how to integrate AI at scale. New research from the IBM Institute for Business Value (with Oxford Economics) surveyed 2,007 senior executives across 33 geographies and 20 industries in late 2025. The findings (released January 19) show organizations betting big on AI’s upside while grappling with execution and integration risks. Key findings Investment shift: AI investment projected to surge ~150% by 2030. Budgets move from efficiency (47% today) to innovation (62% by decade’s end). Productivity and reinvestment: Leaders expect a 42% productivity boost; 70% plan to reinvest gains into growth, not just cost cutting. Strategy gap: 68% worry AI will fail without integration into core business. Only 24% see clearly where AI‑driven revenue originates; just 28% know which models they’ll need by 2030. Quote: “AI won’t just support businesses, it will define them… winners will weave AI into every decision and operation,” said Mohamad Ali, SVP, IBM Consulting. Workforce and leadership: 57% expect most current employee skills to be obsolete by 2030; 67% say mindset will matter more than technical skills. By 2030, 25% expect an AI advisor or co‑decision maker on boards; 74% say AI will redefine leadership roles. Model strategy: 72% expect small/specialized language models to surpass large general models in enterprise value. Organizations scaling with smaller, custom models project 24% greater productivity gains and 55% higher operating margins. Why it matters Optimism without clear revenue mapping or integration plans risks “pilot purgatory.” The winners will connect AI initiatives directly to P&L, embed governance early, and choose right‑sized models aligned to specific workflows.